Gold prices have regained momentum, finding fresh demand near the $3,110 mark as anticipation builds ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement on “reciprocal tariffs.” The market is closely watching the White House’s upcoming decision, which is expected to be unveiled from the Rose Garden at 20:00 GMT today.
Key Market Focus: Trump’s Tariff Announcement
As traders await the tariff news, the gold price is also sensitive to upcoming economic data. Market participants will look to the U.S. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change report for March, expected to show a rise of 105,000 private sector jobs, up from February’s modest gain of 77,000. Should the data show signs of labor market weakness, it could reinforce expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, providing additional support for gold’s price.
However, any market reaction to the ADP data may be short-lived as the primary focus remains on President Trump’s highly anticipated tariff announcement. On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House is considering imposing global tariffs of up to 20% on almost all U.S. trading partners. Late Monday, President Trump rejected proposals for narrower tariffs.
Uncertainty Surrounds Tariff Details
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has highlighted what he referred to as the “Dirty 15” — 15 countries that trade heavily with the U.S. and have high tariffs. However, late Tuesday, Bessent clarified that the tariffs announced today would represent the highest levels, with the possibility for countries to negotiate reductions.
Additionally, traders are awaiting the automobile tariffs, set to take effect on April 3, which could add further uncertainty to the situation. In light of this, investors are flocking to gold as a safe-haven asset, helping the price surge to a record high of $3,149 on Tuesday.
Potential Market Reactions
The market’s response to Trump’s tariff announcement will be critical. If the details disappoint — for instance, if Trump announces lower or more targeted tariffs or leaves room for future negotiations — risk sentiment may recover, dampening gold’s appeal. In this scenario, the price of gold could see a sharp correction toward the $3,050 level.
On the other hand, if Trump’s tariffs signal a deeper global trade conflict and economic challenges for the U.S., gold could see a fresh rally, potentially reaching the $3,200 mark.
Technical Analysis: Gold’s Price Movement
Gold’s price action is trending back toward the record high of $3,149 early Wednesday, following a brief pullback on Tuesday. The next key resistance is at the rising trendline near $3,158. A sustained move above this level could trigger a fresh uptrend, aiming for the $3,200 threshold.
However, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) now back in the overbought territory at 76.30, risks of a correction remain. On the downside, gold could test the $3,100 level, with a further decline potentially targeting this week’s low of $3,077. The $3,050 psychological barrier would likely be the next support level if selling pressure increases.
Outlook
Overall, President Trump’s tariff announcement will play a crucial role in shaping gold’s price trajectory in the near term. As markets wait for clarity, gold remains a key asset in times of uncertainty, with investors closely monitoring both economic data and political developments.